Key Example: The 30-Year Diversity Paradox

Even if a firm with 30% female staff recruits 50% women every year, it may still take decades for the overall workforce to reach gender parity if careers are long and turnover is low.

Understanding these dynamics helps organisations set realistic diversity targets and workforce strategies.

Example insight
Even with 50% hiring, it can still take decades to reach parity.

Workforce Policy Stress Testing

The Stubborn States Framework

Most workforce targets are never mathematically tested.
Many are unachievable under real hiring, promotion, and attrition conditions.

They are set aspirationally.
They are reported publicly.

But they are rarely examined quantitatively.

We quantify that risk.

A simple but powerful insight

Even if a firm with 30% female representation
recruits 50% women every year,

it may still take decades to reach parity
if careers are long and turnover is low.

Small differences in hiring and progression rates
create large structural effects over time.

This is what most targets ignore.

What We Do

We test whether your workforce targets are:

  • Achievable under realistic conditions
  • How long they will actually take
  • What would need to change to deliver them

We focus on numerical clarity, not policy advocacy..

How It Works

We build structured simulation models using:

  • Current workforce composition
  • Recruitment and promotion flows
  • Attrition dynamics
  • External supply data (where relevant)

We then project forward over multi-year horizons and test alternative scenarios.

Outputs are delivered in a clear, board-ready format..

Services

Target Feasibility Review (Entry Point)

A rapid, evidence-based assessment of whether your stated targets are actually deliverable.

Recruitment & Progression Simulation

Scenario modelling to quantify how hiring, promotion, and attrition shape long-term outcomes.

Strategic Workforce Projection

Full multi-year modelling to support board-level planning, governance, and risk assessment.

Who This Is For

  • HR Directors
  • Chief Diversity Officers
  • Managing Partners
  • Executive and Risk Committees

Particularly relevant where public commitments, regulatory reporting, or market constraints apply.

Particularly relevant where public commitments, regulatory reporting, or market constraints are present.

Why Quantitative Testing Matters

Without modelling, targets remain conceptual.

With modelling, leadership gains:

  • Clarity on feasibility
  • Early visibility of structural constraints
  • Improved governance confidence
  • Better strategic planning

The Structural Reality

Workforce composition does not respond instantly to policy.

It moves slowly.
It depends on flows.
And under many conditions, it settles into stubborn states.

Understanding that dynamic is the difference between:

  • A credible strategy
    and
  • A target that cannot be delivered

Next Step

We offer a short introductory discussion to assess whether your current targets can be stress-tested using available data.

Initial findings can typically be delivered within 2–3 weeks.

Contact: [email protected]

Check out this website to see some examples of Diversity Maths applications…